Variable Tsunami Sources and Seismic Gaps in the Southernmost Kuril Trench: A Review

In the southernmost Kuril Trench, the tsunami source regions vary their along-trench extent even among earthquakes occurring within the same segment. Recent studies suggest that the tsunami source of the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.1) differs from but partially overlaps with that of the 2003 Tokach-oki earthquake (M 8.0). Furthermore, the along-trench extent among the earthquakes seems to differ between deep and shallow portions of the subduction interface. A seismic gap has been recognized along the deep subduction interface between the sources of the 1952 and 1973 earthquakes. We propose that the gap is now larger, including both shallow to deep portions of the interface between the 1973 and 2003 earthquakes. Variability in spatial extent of large subduction earthquakes in both along-trench direction and trench-normal direction makes it difficult to forecast future earthquakes in the southernmost Kuril Trench.