Probabilistic Design

Abstract In this article, the probabilistic approach to design and risk analysis in civil engineering is outlined. The application of probabilistic design methods offers the designer a way to unify the design of engineering structures, processes, and management systems. For this reason, there is a growing interest in the use of these methods. This article begins with an introduction to probabilistic analysis, a discussion on uncertainties, and a reflection on the deterministic approach versus the probabilistic approach. The article then addresses the tools, design, and calculation methods for a probabilistic systems analysis. Failure probability calculation for an element is reviewed and the article concludes with a description of the evaluation methods of a calculated risk level.