The effect of public transport disruption on bicycle usage. Evidence from a natural experiment in Budapest

Abstract In this article we use a natural experiment to assess the effects of a public transport disruption on the bicycle sharing system ridership. We exploit maintenance work on a major tram line in Budapest. Fixed effects panel regressions are applied in a difference-in-difference setting. Our results show that bicycle sharing usage significantly increased on weekdays during the disruption, however, this effect is not substantial relative to the baseline usage of the tram service. These findings raise interesting policy questions.