Forest Dynamics Models for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of Small Forests

Globally, there are myriad situations in which people aim to conserve, restore, or manage forest ecosystems at small spatial scales of 50 ha or less. To inform management, forest dynamics models provide an increasingly diverse and valuable portfolio of tools for projecting forest change under different management and environmental conditions. Yet, many models may not be appropriate or feasible to use in small forest management because of their design for larger-scale applications, the information needed to initialize models, or discrepancies between model outputs and information relevant for small forest management objectives. This review explores the suitability of 54 existing forest dynamics models to inform the management of small forests. We evaluated the characteristics of each model using five criteria with implications for small forest management: spatial resolution, number of species the model can simulate, inclusion of spatial structure, modeling approach, and mechanistic detail. While numerous models can be suitable under certain conditions, the review criteria led us to conclude that two models offered the broadest versatility and usability for small forest contexts, SORTIE and FORMIND. This review can help orient and guide small forest managers who wish to add modeling to their forest management efforts.