Analysis of possible future atmospheric retention of fossil fuel CO/sub 2/

This report investigates the likely rates and the potential range of future CO/sub 2/ emissions, combined with knowledge of the global cycle of carbon, to estimate a possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations through the year 2075. Historic fossil fuel usage to the present, growing at a rate of 4.5% per year until 1973 and at a slower rate of 1.9% after 1973, was combined with three scenarios of projected emissions growth ranging from approximately 0.2 to 2.8% per year to provide annual CO/sub 2/ emissions data for two different carbon cycle models. The emissions scenarios were constructed using an energy-economic model and by varying key parameters within the bounds of currently expected future values. The extreme values for CO/sub 2/ emissions in the year 2075 are 6.8 x 10/sup 15/ and 91 x 10/sup 15/ g C year/sup -1/. Carbon cycle model simulations used a range of year - 1800 preindustrial atmospheric concentrations of 245 to 292 ppM CO/sub 2/ and three scenarios of bioshere conversion as additional atmospheric CO/sub 2/ source terms. These simulations yield a range of possible atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations in year 2075 of approximately 500 to 1500 ppM, with a median of about 700 ppM. The time at which atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would potentially double from the preindustrial level ranges from year 2025 to >2075. The practical, programmatic value of this forecast exercise is that it forces quantitative definition of the assumptions, and the uncertainties therein, which form the basis of our understanding of the natural biogeochemical cycle of carbon and both historic and future human influences on the dynamics of the global cycle. Assumptions about the possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels provide a basis on which to evaluate the implications of these changes on climate and the biosphere. 44 references, 17 figures, 21 tables.