The October 1998 Crisis in Turkish-Syrian Relations: A Prospect Theory Approach

This article attempts to answer the question of what made the Turkish threats in the 1998 October crisis with Syria different from all others made over the last two decades and the main reasons for Hafiz al-Asad’s capitulation to them. Using prospect theory, this article argues that it was not the changing balance of power or the deterring effect of the Turkish-Israeli cooperation that brought about Turkish resolve and Syrian capitulation at the end of the crisis, but Asad’s domestic policy constraints and health problems.