World Trade Flows by Origin and Destination, 1970-90: A Functional Analysis*

This paper looks at the changing world trade environment by origin and destination. The framework, and hence the analysis, is highly aggregate in nature. In this paper, developing countries are distinguished in functional rather than geographical categories: oil exporters and oil importers, low and middle income countries. The paper analyzes the historical years 1970 and 1977 as well as the years 1980 and 1990, as projected in the World Development Report of 1980. The emphasis is on total merchandise trade; although fuel matrices have also been developed, and hence the determination of non-fuel merchandise trade flows. The paper is primarily of a descriptive nature. It is meant as a first exploration into the dimensions and nature of recent shifts in the structure of trade, particularly of oil-importing and oil-exporting developing countries. The results are part of a wider project, aiming at a detailed assessment and analysis of trade among developing countries. These preliminary results should provide an informative framework and as such help to formulate guidelines and hypotheses for further analysis in the interdeveloping country trade context.