Land Development Risk Analysis for Multimodal Transportation Corridors

Adjacent land development can compromise the performance of multimodal transportation facilities and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing capacities. There is an increasing need for jurisdictions to focus scarce funding on the corridors with the highest risk of land development and greatest potential for excess cost and regret. Escalating land values along with uncertainties in cost and public perception require that the agency proactively address future development along multimodal corridors to avoid surprise, regret, and belated action. This study integrated several risk and reliability models in order to predict land development and suggest priorities for risk management on the 5,700-mile multimodal system known as the Virginia Statewide Mobility System (SMS). Access point densities were counted and analyzed along the SMS, the related Corridors of Statewide Significance, and several parallel corridors. The access point analysis along with expert evidence was used to quantify consequences related to corridor protection. The study used more than 40 geographic information systems (GIS) data layers obtained from federal, state, and commercial entities including the Virginia Department of Transportation, U.S. Census Bureau, National Land Cover Database satellite imagery, and others. The study aggregated the layers in several expert perspectives to suggest priority corridor sections for risk management. No single perspective would be adequate. The analysis included eliciting factors most influencing land development; identifying key combinations of factors; quantifying the relative potential for volatile development of individual corridor sections; testing sensitivity of results to scenarios, assumptions, and emergent conditions; estimating a time to development; and describing strategic actions to minimize regret or excess cost. The result is an evidence-based method that will enable state planners to compare, prioritize, and benchmark needs for risk management over adjacent lands for thousands of miles of corridor.