Using MHD Simulation for Space Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting

In this three year project, we have investigated the feasibility of using the Lyon-Fedder-Moharry (LFM) code to predict in real time space weather conditions and display these conditions through diagnostics tailored for the use of NOAA and Air Force operators. We have performed numerous simulations of diverse space weather events including magnetic storms and substorms using as input solar wind and IMF data from the WIND and ACE spacecraft. We have validated these results against spacecraft and ground based observations both in our own studies and through participation in community code metrics studies We have also developed diagnostics for space weather operators that display the simulation results effectively and meaningfully. We have consulted frequently with our colleagues at the NOAA Space Environment Center throughout the project to get their evaluation of the diagnostics and presented them in papers each year at the Space Weather Week meeting they host.