Using Punctuated Equilibrium to Understand Patterns of Institutional Budget Change in Higher Education

In this paper, we employ Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to consider institutions’ shifting goals, priorities, and constraints, and to explore the nature of change at colleges and universities in the United States. By exploiting annual changes in institutional budget decisions over a 29-year period, we seek to understand the extent to which institutions exhibit patterns of punctuated equilibrium, which are characterized by long periods of relative equilibrium (stasis) and of occasional extreme changes (punctuations). Broadly, we find that institutions of higher education allocate funds in a pattern characteristic of Punctuated Equilibrium, and that certain types of institutions are more likely than others to exhibit this pattern. Taken in whole, this paper calls into question a prevailing perspective on change in higher education — that change is slow-moving, moderate, and incremental. Instead, we posit that a framework of Punctuated Equilibrium may better describe how researchers and practitioners should consider institutional change within higher education.