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2021•ROSA POpen access

Methods Used to Develop a Model for Crash and Injury Projections for 2020–2030

Ann Mallory, Allison Kender, Laura L. Watkins, Erin E. Hutter, Kevin M. Moorhouse, Transportation Research Center Inc

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Abstract

This report describes in detail the design and implementation of a projection model developed at NHTSA’s Vehicle Research and Test Center that will be used to identify future crash, occupant, and injury issues remaining. The most urgent issues in crash safety research have typically been identified with retrospective, real-world crash data. However, this report describes methods for projecting future crashes using retrospective data from NASS CDS, NASS GES, and FARS, along with the best forecasts of population and transportation trends, and estimates of the effects of current and planned safety countermeasures.

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What this paper is about

This report describes in detail the design and implementation of a projection model developed at NHTSA’s Vehicle Research and Test Center that will be used to identify future crash, occupant, and injury issues remaining. The most urgent issues in crash safety research have typically been identified with retrospective, real-world crash data. However, this report describes methods for projecting future crashes using retrospective data from NASS CDS, NASS GES, and FARS, along with the best forecasts of population and transportation trends, and estimates of the effects of current and planned safety countermeasures.

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Available abstract

This report describes in detail the design and implementation of a projection model developed at NHTSA’s Vehicle Research and Test Center that will be used to identify future crash, occupant, and injury issues remaining. The most urgent issues in crash safety research have typically been identified with retrospective, real-world crash data. However, this report describes methods for projecting future crashes using retrospective data from NASS CDS, NASS GES, and FARS, along with the best forecasts of population and transportation trends, and estimates of the effects of current and planned safety countermeasures.

Key concepts: Crash, Computer science, Programming language

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