Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Manufacturing Structural Upgrading: Evidence from China

Manufacturing is one of the drivers of China’s growth, realizing structural upgrading is vital to achieve high-quality economic development during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Based on firm-level and province-level panel data from 1997 to 2018, this paper used a fixed effect panel data model and panel quantile regression model to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on structural upgrading in manufacturing. The findings indicate that the effect of economic policy uncertainty on structural upgrading in manufacturing is significantly positive and great in regions at advanced stages of manufacturing structure. The discussion about the results suggests that the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty affecting structural upgrading in manufacturing operates through pushing the manufacturing industry to implement service transformation strategies along with vertical integration.