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2015•SSRN Electronic JournalOpen access

Forecasting Imports of India Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Jeelan Basha.V

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Abstract

This study attempts to forecast imports of India using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models of forecasting. Using data for 1971-72 to 2014-15, imports of India are forecasted for imminent 5 years starting from 2015-16 to 2019-2020. ARMA (2,1,2) are found appropriate for imports of India. Some diagnostic tests are also performed on fitted models and are found well fitted.

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What this paper is about

This study attempts to forecast imports of India using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models of forecasting. Using data for 1971-72 to 2014-15, imports of India are forecasted for imminent 5 years starting from 2015-16 to 2019-2020. ARMA (2,1,2) are found appropriate for imports of India. Some diagnostic tests are also performed on fitted models and are found well fitted.

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Available abstract

This study attempts to forecast imports of India using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models of forecasting. Using data for 1971-72 to 2014-15, imports of India are forecasted for imminent 5 years starting from 2015-16 to 2019-2020. ARMA (2,1,2) are found appropriate for imports of India. Some diagnostic tests are also performed on fitted models and are found well fitted.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Moving average, Autoregressive–moving-average model, Econometrics, Autoregressive model, Moving-average model, Economics, Statistics

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