Potential soil carbon sequestration of agricultural land around the world

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in to the atmosphere to limit global warming is the big challenge of the coming decades. The focus lies on negative emission technologies to remove GHGs from the atmosphere from different sectors. Agriculture produces around a quarter of all the anthropogenic GHGs globally (including land use change and afforestation). Reducing these net emissions can be achieved through techniques that increase the soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. These techniques include improved management practices in agriculture and grassland systems, which increase the organic carbon (C) input or reduce soil disturbances. The C sequestration potential differs among soils depending on climate, soil properties and management, with the highest potential for poor soils (SOC stock farthest from saturation). Modelling can be used to estimate the technical potential to sequester C of agricultural land under different mitigation practices for the next decades under different climate scenarios. The ECOSSE model was developed to simulate soil C dynamics and GHG emissions in mineral and organic soils. A spatial version of the model (GlobalECOSSE) was adapted to simulate agricultural soils around the world to calculate the SOC change under changing management and climate. Practices like different tillage management, crop rotations and residue incorporation showed regional differences and the importance of adapting mitigation practices under an increased changing climate. A fast adoption of practices that increase SOC has its own challenges, as the potential to sequester C is high until the soil reached a new C equilibrium. Therefore, the potential to use soil C sequestration to reduce overall GHG emissions is limited. The results showed a high potential to sequester C until 2050 but much lower rates in the second half of the century, highlighting the importance of using soil C sequestration in the coming decades to reach net zero by 2050.