STRATEGIC INSIGHTS FOR CALIFORNIA’S DELTA CONFLICT

Abstract Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is a systematic approach to handling strategic conflicts. GMCR is categorized as a non- quantitative game- theoretic model that provides a systematic framework to study conflicts and analyze behavioral characteristics of decision makers (DMs) in conflicts with respect to their preferences. The Sacramento– San Joaquin Delta— the major water supply source in California and a unique ecosystem— is on the verge of collapse because of an ongoing conflict over how to manage the Delta. In this chapter, GMCR is used to model this continuing conflict to better understand the options, preferences and strategies of the major decision makers participating in the Delta conflict. Coalition analysis is also used to identify the possible subset of decision makers with the motivation and opportunity to form coalitions and to reveal how creating a coalition can influence the outcomes of the conflict- resolution process. We anticipate our study provides strategic insight into the conflict for all parties and California policy makers. Furthermore, our study shows that, since a full- cooperation approach among the players hardly exists, external force to lead all players toward cooperation could be helpful. Introduction California's Sacramento– San Joaquin Delta is the largest estuary on North America's western coast. It is located in Northern California where it forms the eastern portion of the San Francisco Estuary, at the junction of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. The Delta has always played an important role in the wealth and economy of California, meeting agricultural and recreational needs as well as providing land and major water supplies for its residents (Lund et al. 2007). Its unique and complex ecosystem has made it a desirable home for more than 750 animal and plant species (McClurg 2010). The lives of Californians from the Bay Area and Silicon Valley to the San Joaquin Valley, the Central Coast and Southern California, including metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles and San Diego, directly depend on the Delta's water resources, its water conveyance infrastructures and its complex management (Hanak et al. 2012).