Rainfall variability and rice production in Nigeria: A co-integration model approach

One major key elements of climate change is rainfall which contributes strongly to agricultural productivity. In Nigeria, the production of most food crops is through rain-fed especially rice production. Rice is of national interest and food security concern as it forms a part of an average Nigerian diet and the country depends heavily on importation to meet the citizens’ rice demand. Also, low yield has been recorded in local rice production and this has been attributed to various climatic factors but notable, irregularity in rainfall and short period of rainfall. Against this backdrop, it became expedient to study the relationship between rainfall quantity and rice production in Nigeria between 1980 and 2012(32years). Secondary data was used for this study. The analytical tools used are descriptive analysis, trend analysis, Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model and Error correction model (ECM). The result revealed that between the years 1980 and 2012, total rice yield was 90,630,400 metric tonnes averaging at 2,832,200 metric tonnes per annum while total amount of rainfall for the period was 37,047mm with a mean rainfall amount of 1157.74mm per year. The study found a long run association between rainfall and rice with a long run multiplier effect of 3.151. Rainfall was found to be positive and significant (1.717) in the short run at 10% significant level. The coefficient of the ECM was -1.390 with a high significant probability value of 0.004.The study concluded that dependency on rainfall as the only source of water intake for rice production cannot match the expected rice yield to cater for the populace of Nigeria. The policy implication of the study is that the government of Nigeria needs to invest more in irrigation as another source of water for rice production. This will ensure all year round production of rice which will lead to higher income to rice farmers, reduced importation of foreign rice, reduced poverty and ensure food security of the populace.