The Marine Dynamics and Changing Trend off the Modern Yellow River Mouth

Topography around the Yellow River mouth has changed greatly in recent years, but studies on the current state of ma- rine dynamics off the Yellow River mouth are relatively scarce. This paper uses a two-dimension numerical model(MIKE 21) to reveal the tidal and wave dynamics in 2012, and conducts comparative analysis of the changes from 1996 to 2012. The results show that M2 amphidromic point moved southeastward by 11 km. It further reveals that the tides around the Yellow River mouth are relatively stable due to the small variations in the tidal constituents. Over the study period, there is no noticeable change in the distribution of tidal types and tidal range, and the mean tidal range off the river mouth during the period studied is 0.5–1.1 m. However, the tidal currents changed greatly due to large change in topography. It is observed that the area with strong tidal currents shifted from the old river mouth(1976–1996) to the modern river mouth(1996–present). While the tidal current speeds decreased continually off the old river mouth, they increased off the modern river mouth. The Maximum Tidal Current Speed(MTCS) reached 1.4 m s-1, and the maximum current speed of 50-year return period reached 2.8 m s-1. Waves also changed greatly due to change in topography. The significant wave height(H1/3) of 50-year return period changed proportionately with the water depth, and the ratio of H1/3 to depth being 0.4–0.6. H1/3 of the 50-year return period in erosion zone increased continually with increasing water depth, and the rate of change varied between 0.06 and 0.07 m yr-1. Based on the results of this study, we infer that in the future, the modern river mouth will protrude gradually northward, while the erosion zone, comprising the old river mouth and area between the modern river mouth and the old river mouth(Intermediate region) will continue to erode. As the modern river mouth protrudes towards the sea, there will be a gradual increase in the current speed and decrease in wave height. Conversely, the old