2022•Stochastic ModelsRequires access

First passage time density of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with broken drift

Stefan Ankirchner, Christophette Blanchet‐Scalliet, Diana Dorobantu, Laura Gay

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Abstract

We consider an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with different drift rates below and above zero. We derive an analytic expression for the density of the first time, where the process hits a given level. The passage time density is linked to the joint law of the process and its running supremum, and we also provide an analytic formula of the joint density/distribution function. Results from a numerical experiment reveal that our formulas allow to numerically evaluate the joint law and the density of the first passage time faster than a simulation-based method.

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What this paper is about

We consider an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with different drift rates below and above zero. We derive an analytic expression for the density of the first time, where the process hits a given level. The passage time density is linked to the joint law of the process and its running supremum, and we also provide an analytic formula of the joint density/distribution function. Results from a numerical experiment reveal that our formulas allow to numerically evaluate the joint law and the density of the first passage time faster than a simulation-based method.

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Available abstract

We consider an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with different drift rates below and above zero. We derive an analytic expression for the density of the first time, where the process hits a given level. The passage time density is linked to the joint law of the process and its running supremum, and we also provide an analytic formula of the joint density/distribution function. Results from a numerical experiment reveal that our formulas allow to numerically evaluate the joint law and the density of the first passage time faster than a simulation-based method.

Key concepts: Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, Infimum and supremum, First-hitting-time model, Statistical physics, Probability density function, Process (computing), Expression (computer science), Mathematics

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