2004•RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsOpen access

On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries

Henrik Steen Hansen, John Rand

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Abstract

We analyse the Granger-causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering the period 1970-2000. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi-directional causality between the FDI/GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI is found to have a lasting impact on the level of GDP, while GDP has no long run impact on the FDI/GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long run effects of shifts in the mean level of FDI/GCF. We interpret this finding as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.

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We analyse the Granger-causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering the period 1970-2000. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi-directional causality between the FDI/GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI is found to have a lasting impact on the level of GDP, while GDP has no long run impact on the FDI/GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long run effects of shifts in the mean level of FDI/GCF. We interpret this finding as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.

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Available abstract

We analyse the Granger-causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering the period 1970-2000. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi-directional causality between the FDI/GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI is found to have a lasting impact on the level of GDP, while GDP has no long run impact on the FDI/GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long run effects of shifts in the mean level of FDI/GCF. We interpret this finding as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.

Key concepts: Foreign direct investment, Economics, Granger causality, Monetary economics, Panel data, Causality (physics), Real gross domestic product, Gross domestic product

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