Gridlock's Gone, Now What?

This article examines the relationship between security returns and political gridlock, which occurs when the U.S. House of Representatives, Senate, and presidency are not controlled by the same political party. The findings support the following conclusions: First, the common view that equities prosper during political gridlock is a myth. Second, fixed-income securities do prosper during gridlock. Third, large companies exhibit higher returns than small companies during gridlock. Finally, the relationship between gridlock and security returns is independent of monetary conditions; this finding supports the existence of a unique gridlock effect. Overall, political conditions are relevant for investors, but previous views about their influence are misguided.