2023Oxford Bulletin of Economics and StatisticsOpen access

Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom*

Huw David Dixon, Jeremy Franklin, Stephen Millard

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Abstract

Abstract We examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates using a Generalized Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make‐up of the consumer price index. We calibrate the model for each sector using the UK consumer price microdata. We find that a policy rule allowing for different responses to inflation in different sectors outperforms a rule targeting only aggregate inflation, as does a rule responding only to core inflation. However, we find that the optimal sectoral rule only leads to a small absolute improvement in terms of extra consumption.

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Abstract We examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates using a Generalized Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make‐up of the consumer price index. We calibrate the model for each sector using the UK consumer price microdata. We find that a policy rule allowing for different responses to inflation in different sectors outperforms a rule targeting only aggregate inflation, as does a rule responding only to core inflation. However, we find that the optimal sectoral rule only leads to a small absolute improvement in terms of extra consumption.

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Available abstract

Abstract We examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates using a Generalized Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make‐up of the consumer price index. We calibrate the model for each sector using the UK consumer price microdata. We find that a policy rule allowing for different responses to inflation in different sectors outperforms a rule targeting only aggregate inflation, as does a rule responding only to core inflation. However, we find that the optimal sectoral rule only leads to a small absolute improvement in terms of extra consumption.

Key concepts: Microdata (statistics), Economics, Monetary policy, Taylor rule, Core inflation, Inflation (cosmology), Inflation targeting, Monetary economics

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