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Cameron's Information Disaster in the Referendum of 2016: An Exit from Brexit?

Paul J. J. Welfens

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Abstract

The UK's BREXIT-referendum on June 23rd, 2016, resulted in 51.9% of voters opting for the UK to leave the EU. This result, however, was a direct consequence of the situation that in the official 16-page information leaflet, which was delivered to all households prior to the vote, the Cameron government did not include any information on the economic effects of BREXIT, although a study by HM Treasury had given rise to internal data on these effects by early April: -10% in long-term real income. On the basis of a popularity function, one can calculate that in the case of this information being widely known to the public, the result could have rather been 52% in favour of Remain. From this perspective, the referendum itself loses legitimacy and the call for a second referendum becomes irrefutable.

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The UK's BREXIT-referendum on June 23rd, 2016, resulted in 51.9% of voters opting for the UK to leave the EU. This result, however, was a direct consequence of the situation that in the official 16-page information leaflet, which was delivered to all households prior to the vote, the Cameron government did not include any information on the economic effects of BREXIT, although a study by HM Treasury had given rise to internal data on these effects by early April: -10% in long-term real income. On the basis of a popularity function, one can calculate that in the case of this information being widely known to the public, the result could have rather been 52% in favour of Remain. From this perspective, the referendum itself loses legitimacy and the call for a second referendum becomes irrefutable.

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Available abstract

The UK's BREXIT-referendum on June 23rd, 2016, resulted in 51.9% of voters opting for the UK to leave the EU. This result, however, was a direct consequence of the situation that in the official 16-page information leaflet, which was delivered to all households prior to the vote, the Cameron government did not include any information on the economic effects of BREXIT, although a study by HM Treasury had given rise to internal data on these effects by early April: -10% in long-term real income. On the basis of a popularity function, one can calculate that in the case of this information being widely known to the public, the result could have rather been 52% in favour of Remain. From this perspective, the referendum itself loses legitimacy and the call for a second referendum becomes irrefutable.

Key concepts: Referendum, Brexit, Treasury, Legitimacy, Political science, Government (linguistics), Popularity, Single currency

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