Behaviour of Dickey-Fuller Unit-Root Tests under Trend Misspecification
Taehwan Kim, Stephen J. Leybourne, Paul Newbold
Abstract
Taehwan Kim, Stephen J. Leybourne, Paul Newbold
Abstract
We analyse the case where a unit-root test is based on a Dickey-Fuller regression the only deterministic term of which is a fixed intercept. Suppose, however, as could well be the case, that the actual data-generating process includes a broken linear trend. It is shown theoretically, and verified empirically, that under the I(1) null and I(0) alternative hypotheses the Dickey-Fuller test can display a wide range of different characteristics depending on the nature and location of the break.
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We analyse the case where a unit-root test is based on a Dickey-Fuller regression the only deterministic term of which is a fixed intercept. Suppose, however, as could well be the case, that the actual data-generating process includes a broken linear trend. It is shown theoretically, and verified empirically, that under the I(1) null and I(0) alternative hypotheses the Dickey-Fuller test can display a wide range of different characteristics depending on the nature and location of the break.
Key concepts: Unit root, Unit root test, Econometrics, Mathematics, Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, Null hypothesis, Null (SQL), Statistics