Calculation on the Potential Economic Growth Rate in the New Normal

As the main driving force for the world economic growth, China’s economy has entered a new normal, which is concentrated in the substantial slowdown in its real economic growth rate in recent years. Since the potential economic growth rate is closely related to the real economic growth rate, it is inevitable to incorporate it into the research framework when studying the long-term economic growth. This paper takes China’s potential economic growth rate as the research object and estimates the capital stock, labor input, human capital stock, actual output, and technology from the inter-provincial perspective based on the general panel data model and spatial panel data model. It has been found that the output elasticity of China’s capital stock, labor input and human capital stock decreases in turn, and the gap among them is large. The output elasticity of China’s capital stock is higher, while that of China’s human capital stock is lower. The change of China’s real economic growth rate is both influenced by internal factors such as potential economic growth rate change and external factors such as demand management and policy change.