Order from Chaos? The Effects of Early Labor Market Experiences on Adult Labor Market Outcomes

This paper examines the consequences of initial periods of “churning” or “mobility” in the labor market, to help assess whether faster transitions to stable employment relationships—as envisioned by advocates of school-to-work programs—would be likely to lead to better adult labor market outcomes. An analysis of National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data for the years 1979–92 yields modest evidence, at best, linking early job market stability to better labor market outcomes. The authors find that for both genders, adult labor market outcomes (defined as of the late 20s or early to mid-30s) are for the most part unrelated to early labor market experiences. This evidence does not support efforts to explicitly target the school-to-work transition, insofar as doing so implies changing the structure of youth labor markets so that workers form earlier and firmer attachments to employers, industries, or occupations.