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2013•RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsOpen access

Survey Data and Short-Term Forecasts of Swedish GDP Growth

Pär Österholm

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Abstract

In this paper, the author evaluates forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden´s most important business survey, the Economic Tendency Survey. Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, an out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted. Results indicate that the survey data have informational value that can be used to improve forecasts, thereby confirming the empirical relevance of survey data for GDP forecasters.

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In this paper, the author evaluates forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden´s most important business survey, the Economic Tendency Survey. Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, an out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted. Results indicate that the survey data have informational value that can be used to improve forecasts, thereby confirming the empirical relevance of survey data for GDP forecasters.

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Available abstract

In this paper, the author evaluates forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden´s most important business survey, the Economic Tendency Survey. Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, an out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted. Results indicate that the survey data have informational value that can be used to improve forecasts, thereby confirming the empirical relevance of survey data for GDP forecasters.

Key concepts: Survey data collection, Real gross domestic product, Term (time), Economics, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Econometrics, Sample (material), Relevance (law)

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