The Zero Lower Bound on the Interest Rate and a Neo-Classical Phillips Curve
Ragna Alstadheim
Abstract
Open-access reader
Ragna Alstadheim
Abstract
Open-access reader
I derive the exact analytical solution for optimal monetary policy given a Neoclassical Phillips curve and a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. There is a particular range of interest rate rule parameters that may close the output gap. One way of closing the output gap involves stable but high inflation (the divine coincidence). In the general case inflation is variable and potentially lower. Thus, one can achieve stable OR low inflation, but not both. When the productivity shock has an unbounded support, only the variable inflation version of optimal policy is implementable. Optimal policy then involves a lagged interest rate response to shocks and a random walk price level.
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I derive the exact analytical solution for optimal monetary policy given a Neoclassical Phillips curve and a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. There is a particular range of interest rate rule parameters that may close the output gap. One way of closing the output gap involves stable but high inflation (the divine coincidence). In the general case inflation is variable and potentially lower. Thus, one can achieve stable OR low inflation, but not both. When the productivity shock has an unbounded support, only the variable inflation version of optimal policy is implementable. Optimal policy then involves a lagged interest rate response to shocks and a random walk price level.
Key concepts: Zero lower bound, Phillips curve, New Keynesian economics, Economics, Monetary policy, Zero (linguistics), Interest rate, Constraint (computer-aided design)