Climate Variability and Wheat Crop Yield in Pakistan: Analyzing Food Security Prospects in Selected Agro Climatic Zones

Wheat is the staple crop of Pakistan constituting major share of dietary needs of its population.This study examines the impact of climate variability on wheat crop yield in the selected agroecological zones of Pakistan.The data on annual aggregate wheat yield, mean variation of temperature and rainfall in the sowing season of wheat crop, and fertilizer was collected from 1994 until 2018 on 15 districts of five agro-climatic zones.The production function approach was employed, and empirical model was tested using fixed effect regression (FEM).Results indicate that increase in temperature variability will decrease wheat yield by 1.53%.However, the impact has varied implications for selected zones.In high temperature zones, a slight variability of temperature in sowing season can decrease annual wheat yield while in other regions where temperature follows normal trend in sowing season, it can enhance wheat yield.Considering varying geographical characteristic of agroecological zones, the region specific policies need to be devised to address adverse implications of climatic variations on the availability of staple food.