Predicting Student Success on a State-mandated Performance-based Assessment Using Oral Reading Fluency

One hundred seventy-three fourth graders were administered curriculum-based oral reading fluency measures in September, January, and May. A growth curve analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between students' slope in oral reading fluency and the Washington Assessment of Student Learning (WASL) reading assessment, which was administered in May. Slope in oral reading fluency across the school year and the oral reading fluency probes administered in September, January, and May reliably predicted May WASL reading performance. Follow-up analyses showed statistically reliable cut-scores based on students' oral reading fluency performance in September, January, and May. Based on these cut-scores, the positive predictive power that September oral reading fluency low scores predicted WASL failure was.41, and the negative predictive power that September oral reading fluency high scores predicted WASL success was.90. These rates are higher than the WASL failure base rate of 20% and the WASL pass base rate of 80% found in this sample. The clinical utility of using these procedures is discussed.