The water–energy nexus of Brazil’s hydropower

This chapter assesses the water use of hydropower in Brazil, shedding light on the scale of the water cycle and the resilience of hydropower under accelerating climate change conditions. Recent droughts unveiled increasing risks and highlighted a lack of methodological approaches and well-defined metrics. We present a novel detailed spatiotemporal scenario analysis of evaporation and the water footprint for the period 2015–2049. Our model predicts an evaporation increase of ~90▒mm, assuming temperature increases by just 1 °C, and we expect increases in water footprint values. These impacts are strongest in Brazil’s Northeast, putting this region at highest risk for energy resilience in the future. We conclude on a need for stricter and more comprehensive water impact assessments for future hydroelectricity plans. Our analysis calls for an overhaul of the electricity system of Brazil, with more integration across regions, upscaling wind and solar, and broader Factor X strategies as sustainable pathways for Brazil.