Predicting human-carnivore conflict at the urban-wildland interface

A major threat to mammalian carnivores is death due to human conflict, including carnivore use of anthropogenic food sources, predation of livestock, or car accidents. To reduce conflicts, it is critical to target proactive mitigations using reliable evidence on where conflict is likely to occur. We tested hypotheses about the importance of anthropogenic and environmental predictors in explaining the timing and distribution of human conflict with black bears (Ursus americanus) and cougars (Puma concolor) in a North American hotspot of human-carnivore conflict. Using reported conflict locations and spatial data in use-availability models, we estimated and mapped the probability of conflict for both species, including seasonally for bears, between 2011 and 2017. We found conflict increased for both species along the urban-wildland interface. Conflict with black bears was present in all seasons and increased with intermediate human density (i.e. suburban neighbourhoods). However, in autumn, bear conflict was more common in agricultural areas. Conversely, cougar conflict was primarily in rural areas, as their main attractant was livestock. We recommend targeting areas and times of expected conflict with proactive mitigations, such as bear-resistant garbage bins in communities adjacent to forests, electric fences that deter both carnivore species, and elimination of rural food attractants in autumn.