Fragile interdependence: the case of Russia-EU relations

This article situates the interdependence debate in IR theories within contemporary world politics and reconsiders the concept of complex interdependence against current deglobalizing dynamics. A notion of fragile interdependence is developed to explore the reversibility of interdependent relationships, an issue which has become increasingly important. Russia-EU relations, during and in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, serve as the core case study to illustrate the implications of the theoretical debate. The focus is placed on two dimensions of their interdependent relationship: (non-energy) trade and gas. Although both dimensions have been reversed during this geopolitical crisis, there has been a contrasting pattern. In a comparative manner, the case study illustrates the ramifications of the theoretical debate, and, more importantly, the extent to which complex or fragile interdependence is relevant. This article argues that fragile interdependence would better capture the reversals, although, at the same time, complex interdependence may still be relevant to account for the rebound in resilient interdependent relationships.