Getting Tough on China: Are Campaign Ads a Signal of Future Policy or Just Cheap Talk?

Is tough‐on‐China campaign rhetoric cheap talk or a signal of policy attention? Analyzing China‐related campaign advertisements during the 2010 midterm elections and subsequent cosponsorship of China‐related bills, we find that campaign ads are a noisy predictor of legislative attention. Challengers who attacked on China were more likely to cosponsor China‐related legislation, while incumbents who were attacked for being soft on China took tougher positions on China after reelection. By demonstrating the correspondence between anti‐China campaign appeals and subsequent legislative attention, our findings add to a growing body of evidence linking campaign rhetoric to members’ legislative agendas. This research note provides the first evidence demonstrating the connection between campaign appeals and legislative attention on a foreign policy issue like China.