INTERBANK CREDIT RISK MODELING WITH SELF-EXCITING JUMP PROCESSES

The credit crunch of 2007 caused major changes in the market of interbank rates making the existing interest rate theory inconsistent. This paper puts forward one way to reconcile practice and theory by modifying the arbitrage-free condition. In this framework, the forward Libor rate is no longer considered as a risk-free rate and the credit and liquidity risks within the interbank market partly drive its dynamics. In a similar manner to the multiple-curve approach, we model the evolution of default-free rates, assimilated to overnight interest swap rates, and the default times of an interbank market segment determined by its tenor. For each segment, we use the reduced form approach to model the arrival rate of defaults with a self-exciting jump-diffusion process. Then, we deduce the dynamics of the spot forward Libor rates and provide closed-form approximation pricing formulae for options on forward Libor rates and swap rates. Even in a context of negative interest rates and compared to other forms of intensity processes such as a CIR, the self-excitation property allows a better understanding of the spread OIS-IRS and provides information about the interbank credit risk. Furthermore, our framework enables to parse the impact of the interbank credit risk on forward Libor as well as on interest rates derivatives like caps, floors, and swaptions.