2020RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsOpen access

Asymmetric macroeconomic effects of QE-induced increases in excess reserves in a monetary union

M. Horst, Ulrike Neyer, Daniel Stempel

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Abstract

The Eurosystem's large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing, QE) induce a strong and persistent increase in excess reserves in the euro area banking sector. These excess reserves are heterogeneously distributed across euro area countries. This paper develops a two-country New Keynesian model { calibrated to represent a high- and a low-liquidity euro area member { to analyze the macroeconomic effects of (QE-induced) heterogeneous increases in excess reserves and deposits in a monetary union. QE triggers economic activity and increases the union-wide consumer price level after a negative preference shock. However, its efficacy is dampened by a reverse bank lending channel that weakens the interest rate channel of QE. These dampening effects are higher in the high-liquidity country. We find similar results in response to a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, we show that a shock in the form of a deposit shift between the two countries, interpreted as capital ight, has negative (positive) effects for the economy of the country receiving (losing) the deposits.

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The Eurosystem's large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing, QE) induce a strong and persistent increase in excess reserves in the euro area banking sector. These excess reserves are heterogeneously distributed across euro area countries. This paper develops a two-country New Keynesian model { calibrated to represent a high- and a low-liquidity euro area member { to analyze the macroeconomic effects of (QE-induced) heterogeneous increases in excess reserves and deposits in a monetary union. QE triggers economic activity and increases the union-wide consumer price level after a negative preference shock. However, its efficacy is dampened by a reverse bank lending channel that weakens the interest rate channel of QE. These dampening effects are higher in the high-liquidity country. We find similar results in response to a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, we show that a shock in the form of a deposit shift between the two countries, interpreted as capital ight, has negative (positive) effects for the economy of the country receiving (losing) the deposits.

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Available abstract

The Eurosystem's large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing, QE) induce a strong and persistent increase in excess reserves in the euro area banking sector. These excess reserves are heterogeneously distributed across euro area countries. This paper develops a two-country New Keynesian model { calibrated to represent a high- and a low-liquidity euro area member { to analyze the macroeconomic effects of (QE-induced) heterogeneous increases in excess reserves and deposits in a monetary union. QE triggers economic activity and increases the union-wide consumer price level after a negative preference shock. However, its efficacy is dampened by a reverse bank lending channel that weakens the interest rate channel of QE. These dampening effects are higher in the high-liquidity country. We find similar results in response to a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, we show that a shock in the form of a deposit shift between the two countries, interpreted as capital ight, has negative (positive) effects for the economy of the country receiving (losing) the deposits.

Key concepts: Economics, Monetary economics, Excess reserves, Shock (circulatory), Quantitative easing, Monetary policy, Market liquidity, Liquidity trap

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