2020Unpublished venueOpen access

Numerical Simulation of Squall line in idealized SINGV and WRF Models

Ragi Rajagopalan, Anurag Dipankar, Xiang‐Yu Huang

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Abstract

Squall lines are the prominent feature over Singapore region creating strongly localized rain events due to vigorous localized convective activity. These convective systems have relatively small spatial and temporal scales compared to other atmospheric features like monsoons, thus the prediction of these features lack accuracy. The SINGV numerical weather prediction model is able to provide improved weather forecasts over Singapore region, however, challenges still exist in predicting the thunderstorm/squall line events in onset, location, intensity and lead time. A few real-time case studies of squall lines indicate that SINGV could not capture these features appropriately, while WRF did a better forecasting. To understand the issues with SINGV model, idealized simulations replicating the Weismann & Klemp ‘82 case are conducted keeping similar physics in both the models. Preliminary results indicate that both models behave differently: WRF displays organized convection whereas in SINGV the storm splits at the early stages. Cross-sectional details along the propagating squall line suggest that the updrafts and downdrafts, at the storm development stages, are moderately higher in SINGV compared to WRF. It is speculated that these stronger updrafts in SINGV carry anomalously large amount of liquid water to the upper troposphere where these are converted into rain, which in turn result in stronger downdrafts facilitating the splitting of initial storm. Further analysis is required to conclude our speculation.

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What this paper is about

Squall lines are the prominent feature over Singapore region creating strongly localized rain events due to vigorous localized convective activity. These convective systems have relatively small spatial and temporal scales compared to other atmospheric features like monsoons, thus the prediction of these features lack accuracy. The SINGV numerical weather prediction model is able to provide improved weather forecasts over Singapore region, however, challenges still exist in predicting the thunderstorm/squall line events in onset, location, intensity and lead time. A few real-time case studies of squall lines indicate that SINGV could not capture these features appropriately, while WRF did a better forecasting. To understand the issues with SINGV model, idealized simulations replicating the Weismann & Klemp ‘82 case are conducted keeping similar physics in both the models. Preliminary results indicate that both models behave differently: WRF displays organized convection whereas in SINGV the storm splits at the early stages. Cross-sectional details along the propagating squall line suggest that the updrafts and downdrafts, at the storm development stages, are moderately higher in SINGV compared to WRF. It is speculated that these stronger updrafts in SINGV carry anomalously large amount of liquid water to the upper troposphere where these are converted into rain, which in turn result in stronger downdrafts facilitating the splitting of initial storm. Further analysis is required to conclude our speculation.

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Available abstract

Squall lines are the prominent feature over Singapore region creating strongly localized rain events due to vigorous localized convective activity. These convective systems have relatively small spatial and temporal scales compared to other atmospheric features like monsoons, thus the prediction of these features lack accuracy. The SINGV numerical weather prediction model is able to provide improved weather forecasts over Singapore region, however, challenges still exist in predicting the thunderstorm/squall line events in onset, location, intensity and lead time. A few real-time case studies of squall lines indicate that SINGV could not capture these features appropriately, while WRF did a better forecasting. To understand the issues with SINGV model, idealized simulations replicating the Weismann & Klemp ‘82 case are conducted keeping similar physics in both the models. Preliminary results indicate that both models behave differently: WRF displays organized convection whereas in SINGV the storm splits at the early stages. Cross-sectional details along the propagating squall line suggest that the updrafts and downdrafts, at the storm development stages, are moderately higher in SINGV compared to WRF. It is speculated that these stronger updrafts in SINGV carry anomalously large amount of liquid water to the upper troposphere where these are converted into rain, which in turn result in stronger downdrafts facilitating the splitting of initial storm. Further analysis is required to conclude our speculation.

Key concepts: Squall line, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Thunderstorm, Storm, Meteorology, Mesocyclone, Climatology, Convection

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