Modelling the Influence of Riverine Inputs on the Circulation and Flushing Times of Small Shallow Estuaries

Abstract Simple flushing time calculations for estuarine systems can be used as proxies for eutrophication susceptibility. However, more complex methods are required to better understand entire systems. Understanding of the hydrodynamics driving circulation and flushing times in small, eutrophic, temperate estuaries is less advanced than larger counterparts due to lack of data and difficulties in accurately modelling small-scale systems. This paper uses the microtidal Christchurch Harbour estuary in Southern UK as a case study to elucidate the physical controls on eutrophication susceptibility in small shallow basins. A depth-averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured of the estuary to investigate the physical processes driving circulation with particular emphasis on understanding the impact of riverine inputs to this system. Results indicate circulation control changes from tidally to fluvially driven as riverine inputs increase. Flushing times, calculated using a particle tracking method, indicate that the system can take as long as 132 h to flush when river flow is low, or as short as 12 h when riverine input is exceptionally high. When total river flow into the estuary is less than 30 m3 s−1, tidal flux is the dominant hydrodynamic control, which results in high flushing times during neap tides. Conversely, when riverine input is greater than 30 m3 s−1, the dominant hydrodynamic control is fluvial flux, and flushing times during spring tides are longer than at neaps. The methodology presented here shows that modelling at small spatial scales is possible but highlights the importance of particle tracking methods to determine flushing time variability across a system.