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18. Improved NCAA Basketball Tournament Modeling via Point Spread and Team Strength Information

Bradley P. Carlin

Abstract

Several models for estimating the probability that a given team in an NCAA basketball tournament emerges as the regional champion were presented by Schwertman, McCready, and Howard. In this article we improve these probability models by taking advantage of external information concerning the relative strengths of the teams and the point spreads available at the start of the tournament for the first round games. The result is a collection of regional championship probabilities that are specific to a given region and tournament year. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1994 NCAA basketball tournament.

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Key concepts: Tournament, Basketball, Championship, Champion, Point (geometry), Table (database), Team sport, Operations research