Predicting yield for wheat crop in eastern region of Uttar Pradesh using DSSAT model

The crop simulation models can predict crop yield as a function of soil, climate and genetic coefficients. Forecasting yield of crops is important for planners in taking tactical decisions for ensuring food availability. The aim of this study was the calibration and validation of CERES –wheat model (v4.7) for High yielding variety of wheat in Prayagraj and Varanasi district of Uttar Pradesh. Crop simulation models are useful tool to forecast the crop yield. Based on the areas under different dates of sowing and crop cultivars, a correction factor was applied on simulated yield to predict the district wise and regional wheat yield. The simulated yield were higher than the actual yield in the both district, while the forecasted yields were very close to actual. The Relative deviation of the forecasted yield from the actual was ±4% and ±9%. The results clearly indicated that the CERES-Wheat model can be used to regional production estimates of wheat in Uttar Pradesh.