Simulation of Intensity and Track of Tropical Cyclones Over the Arabian Sea Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System with Different Initial Conditions (ICs)

An attempt is made to simulate the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea (AS) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with different initial conditions (ICs). For this purpose, two extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS), Chapala and Megh, are considered for evaluation of the performance of the WRF model in prediction of track and intensity of TCs on the basis of a total of 11 different initial conditions. The overall performance of the WRF model has been found reasonably good in predicting TCs over the basin. The model has realistically predicted the tracks of the TCs with most of the ICs at different stages of the storms. The WRF model is found to be more skillful for track prediction of TCs when initialized at the severe cyclonic stage (SCS) rather than at the cyclonic stage (CS) or lower. Therefore, the track errors are lesser with the advancement of model ICs in each TC case. The model is more capable to predict the landfall location than the landfall time of the storms.