Whether China's Crude Oil Futures Price Has Become the International Benchmark

This paper gives the necessary conditions for judging whether a bulk commodity futures price can become an international benchmark index through the theory of one-way effect causal measure, that is, the conductivity and independence of futures price.Taking Shanghai crude oil futures price as an example, the study finds that: first, the RMB and US dollar prices of SC1809 have a strong influence on WTI and Brent oil prices in a short period and a lasting influence on Brent oil prices in a long period.Second, in terms of the impact on WTI and Brent, the impact of SC1809 RMB price is about 20 times that of US dollar price, which shows that US dollar exchange rate factor absorbs its influence to a large extent, and it is also an important support to maintain the two as benchmark indicators of world oil price.Third, although SC1809 RMB and US dollar prices are not affected by WTI and Brent oil prices in the short term, it only shows a certain degree of isolation.Fourthly, the lack of conductivity of WTI and Brent oil prices indicates that their status as benchmark indicators of world oil prices has been shaken.