Agricultural production in Poland and agri-food exports

The research is aiming at the identification of the dynamic causality between agricultural production in Poland and exports of agri-food goods. Identification of the magnitude and direction of these variables may be used for economic policy forming. The study covers the period of 1991—2013 and is based on the data from the FAO; the research employs the vector autoregression methodology (VAR). The study comprises, among others, the analysis of the impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecasts’ errors of VAR model variables. The results of the research show that agricultural production in Poland is shaped by both own and exports delays. On the other hand, agri-food exports are mainly influenced by their own development trends. This means that, in the VAR model, exports should be seen as a priority ('more exogenous').