Predicting the effect of 5‐fluorouracil–based adjuvant chemotherapy on colorectal cancer recurrence: A model using gene expression profiles

ABSTRACT It is critical to identify patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer (CRC) who will benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after curative surgery, while the only use of clinical factors is insufficient to predict this beneficial effect. In this study, we performed genetic algorithm (GA) to select ACT candidate genes, and built a predictive model of support vector machine (SVM) using gene expression profiles from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. The model contained four ACT candidate genes (EDEM1, MVD, SEMA5B, and WWP2) and TNM stage (stage II or III). After using Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot to determine the optimal cutoff value of predictive scores, the validated patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas database can be divided into the predictive ACT‐benefit/‐futile groups. Patients in the predictive ACT‐benefit group with 5‐fluorouracil (5‐Fu)–based ACT had significantly longer relapse‐free survival (RFS) compared to those without ACT (P = .015); However, the difference in RFS in the predictive ACT‐futile group was insignificant (P = .596). The multivariable analysis found that the predictive groups were significantly associated with the effect of ACT (Pinteraction = .011). Consequently, we developed a predictive model based on the SVM and GA algorithm which was further validated to define patients who benefit from ACT on recurrence.