American Politics 2012: A Far Cry from Middle Ground

The next presidential elections in the U.S. will bring the answer to the question about the future of bipartisan consensus in Washington. The challenges and problems that have arisen after the economic crisis broke out have surely undermined the credibility of Barack Obama's administration. Democrats lost momentum in 2010, and it seems that President Obama, though having enormous support in 2008, is unable to push for fundamental change in Washington. Mitt Romney, Obama's rival, is trying to build his campaign differences between him and the incumbent president, but his agenda will not change the need for bipartisan consensus many issues vital to the U.S. Congress remains deeply divided over foreign policy, and public opinion polls reveal a widening gap between Republican and Democratic voters values and issues ranging from the world economy, to the future of NAFTA, the war terrorism, and Pentagon spending, to name only a few.1 Obama ran and won the elections in 2008 on the idea of uniting the country,2 but after three years in office he has the highest partisan approval gap ever. This widening gap and the polarised American politics will be a huge challenge for the next president, Democrat or Republican. But President Obama, with the exception of highly important bills such as health reform, is mostly a moderate president in his relations with Congress.3 The strategy of balancing interests and small steps has had, without any doubt, and will have an impact U.S. foreign policy. The prospects of change and possible implications for world politics after the upcoming election in 2012 are assessed in this article. I argue that the unsuccessful pursuit for middle ground in domestic affairs translates into the absence of consensus over foreign policy. I argue also that issues recurring every four years, such as gay marriage, immigration, and the role of religion in the public sphere galvanise the debate about the candidates and polarise American society. However these recurring issues are nothing but kinds of tools to mobilise voters, and the rhetoric used in the campaign outweighs the problem.The article proceeds in the following manner: Part I deals with the role and place of two important developments in recent years that have had an impact the style and content of the presidential race in 2012, namely changes in campaign finance rules (the Citizens United case),4 and changes in Americans' view of religion; the next subsection provides an analysis of the presidential transition and identifies a number of variables that condition this process; Part II discusses possible scenarios for the next president regarding propositions about the future agenda announced by both the incumbent president and his rival; Part III deals with the prospects for American foreign policy after November 2012, and major trends and patterns have been characterised in terms of strategic and political context; finally, in the conclusions I suggest that despite the given structure and limits, the American society after November 2012 will be more polarised, and U.S. foreign policy will be more focused and constrained issues that directly affect American interests and will be less benevolent and inward looking regardless of who wins the presidential election.Key Recent Developments in American PoliticsWhen we are expecting dramatic changes after presidential elections we should bear in mind that American domestic and foreign policies are, to a large extent, characterised by continuity rather than revolution or change. Even though every presidential candidate declares differences in politics and tries to distinguish himself from the incumbent, in fact, all of them are limited in their choices. In most cases, the declared change is a question of style rather than a reversal of American strategy towards world politics. The prospects for revolutionary change depicted by candidates are unrealistic, and several features of international relations have framed American foreign policy since 1989, and long before. …