2006Issues & StudiesRequires access

Measuring China's Influence over North Korea

Jaeho Hwang

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Abstract

Whenever the existence of North Korea is threatened, China always has in the past come to its aid by opposing both economic sanctions and military pressure against Pyongyang, and most likely will continue to do so in future. At the same time, China prefers to orchestrate stability on the Korean Peninsula by restraining military adventurism by Pyongyang that might lead to the collapse of the regime. For China, the survival of North Korea is key to maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, China has continually expanded its economic relationship with North Korea, as well as hosting the series of six-party talks. However, some questions still remain: How much influence does China really have over North Korea, and what kind of leverage does China have? This paper will argue that China's influence over North Korea is greater than that of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. China's influence extends from the economic, political/diplomatic, through to the military fields. However; due to the complex security and political environment in Northeast Asia, it is uncertain whether China will actually exercise its influence over North Korea. Rather, China's influence over North Korea is limited at best, because if China were to use all the instruments it has at its disposal to bring pressure to bear on North Korea, it would endanger its larger strategic objectives for the region.

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What this paper is about

Whenever the existence of North Korea is threatened, China always has in the past come to its aid by opposing both economic sanctions and military pressure against Pyongyang, and most likely will continue to do so in future. At the same time, China prefers to orchestrate stability on the Korean Peninsula by restraining military adventurism by Pyongyang that might lead to the collapse of the regime. For China, the survival of North Korea is key to maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, China has continually expanded its economic relationship with North Korea, as well as hosting the series of six-party talks. However, some questions still remain: How much influence does China really have over North Korea, and what kind of leverage does China have? This paper will argue that China's influence over North Korea is greater than that of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. China's influence extends from the economic, political/diplomatic, through to the military fields. However; due to the complex security and political environment in Northeast Asia, it is uncertain whether China will actually exercise its influence over North Korea. Rather, China's influence over North Korea is limited at best, because if China were to use all the instruments it has at its disposal to bring pressure to bear on North Korea, it would endanger its larger strategic objectives for the region.

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Available abstract

Whenever the existence of North Korea is threatened, China always has in the past come to its aid by opposing both economic sanctions and military pressure against Pyongyang, and most likely will continue to do so in future. At the same time, China prefers to orchestrate stability on the Korean Peninsula by restraining military adventurism by Pyongyang that might lead to the collapse of the regime. For China, the survival of North Korea is key to maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, China has continually expanded its economic relationship with North Korea, as well as hosting the series of six-party talks. However, some questions still remain: How much influence does China really have over North Korea, and what kind of leverage does China have? This paper will argue that China's influence over North Korea is greater than that of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. China's influence extends from the economic, political/diplomatic, through to the military fields. However; due to the complex security and political environment in Northeast Asia, it is uncertain whether China will actually exercise its influence over North Korea. Rather, China's influence over North Korea is limited at best, because if China were to use all the instruments it has at its disposal to bring pressure to bear on North Korea, it would endanger its larger strategic objectives for the region.

Key concepts: China, Peninsula, Sanctions, Political science, Economic sanctions, Politics, Leverage (statistics), Beijing

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