Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions

Abstract. The teleconnections between meteorological parameters of the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were analysed based on the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis data for 1979–2015. The Baltic Sea region was characterised by meteorological values at a testing point (TP) in Southern Estonia (58 N, 26 E). Temperature and specific humidity at the 1000 hPa level at the TP have a strong negative correlation with the Greenland region during all seasons except summer. The strongest teleconnections between the same parameter at the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic are found in winter, but they are clearly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. After removal of the AO index variability, correlations in winter were below ±0.5, while in other seasons there remained regions with strong (|R| > 0.5) correlations. Strong correlations are present between different climate variables at the TP and the Arctic. Temperature and wind speed at the 1000 hPa level in the Baltic Sea region have a significant positive correlation with sea ice concentration in Baffin Bay and in regions between the North Pole and Greenland during all seasons except summer. These teleconnections cannot be explained with the AO index variability. The most permanent lagged correlations in 1000 hPa temperature are in summer at the TP with the Baffin Bay region in the previous spring, winter and even autumn. At every season there are some regions in the Arctic that has strong teleconnections (|R| > 0.5, p