Dynamic Urban Land Use: An explorative study on the implications for transport and spatial planning

The urban agenda is demanding new approaches for urban development. Urban flexibility has been recognized as crucial for coping with uncertainty and smart growth has been advocated as a sustainable urban practice. Urban flexibility and smart growth combined lead to a more dynamic land use, in which building adaptation leads to intensification of existing built areas. However, the impacts of such large-scale and faster intensification on transport and accessibility remain unknown, as well as the required policies to respond to those impacts. This study applies scenario planning and transport modelling to explore the implications of dynamic land use for transport and spatial planning, using the city of Eindhoven as case study. Results show that central areas are suitable for dynamic land use, where intensification does not demand any road infrastructure upgrade. Directed development to central areas can increase bike share, but no form of dynamic land use leads to higher shares of public transport. Finally, spatial randomness is the dominant variable on transport and accessibility performance. Further research should look at the interaction between dynamic land use and transport over time and the design of adaptive transport policies in a dynamic land use context.