COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECASTS: COMPLEXITIES AND METHODOLOGIES IN THE LAGOS MEGA CITY

The forecasting of real estate markets continues to be a topical issue and has attracted several research interests over the decades. This is because the real estate market is a major constituent of both the local and international economies and is not insulated from the swings that characterize the economies. Professional real estate valuers interpret market information as they affect real estate investment and aid the real estate investor in decision making. Therefore, real estate market forecast is an important tool for investment decision making. In Nigeria, however, real estate market forecast and its underlying factors are largely unexplored. This neglect is quite obvious given the data challenges and characteristics of the real estate markets. In view of the foregoing, this study is an attempt to investigate the complexities inherent in the conduct of commercial real estate market forecasts, methods adopted by Nigerian Estate Surveyors and Valuers in predicting the real estate markets and goes further to examine the wider implications of real estate market forecasts to commercial real estate investment in Africa’s most populous and largest economy. The study carried out a questionnaire survey involving Estate Surveyors and Valuers in Lagos megacity, Nigeria’s commercial capital. Preliminary results indicated that the availability of market data was on the increase but the Nigerian professionals are yet to fully incorporate forecasting models in their valuations. The paper recommended that international real estate organizations and investors should collaborate with indigenous researchers, practitioners and the Nigerian real estate professional regulatory bodies in order to develop a sustainable market based forecasting framework.