Unemployment and Growth: Putting Unemployment into Post Keynesian Growth Theory
Thomas I. Palley
Abstract
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Thomas I. Palley
Abstract
Open-access reader
Post Keynesian (PK) growth models typically fail to model unemployment. That shows up in the absence of an equilibrium condition requiring the growth of employment to equal labor-supply growth. Consequently, the models can have an imploding or exploding unemployment rate. The underlying analytical problem is failure to resolve the Harrod (1939)–Solow (1956) knife-edge problem. This paper shows how that knife-edge problem can be resolved via a Kaldor–Hicks technological progress function. It applies the concept to several different PK growth models. In the Harrod, super-multiplier, Cambridge, and neo-Kaleckian models the warranted rate rules the roost and natural rate forces have no impact on the equilibrium growth rate. However, in a modified neo-Kaleckian model, with labor market distribution conflict, both warranted rate and natural rate forces impact steady state growth.
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Post Keynesian (PK) growth models typically fail to model unemployment. That shows up in the absence of an equilibrium condition requiring the growth of employment to equal labor-supply growth. Consequently, the models can have an imploding or exploding unemployment rate. The underlying analytical problem is failure to resolve the Harrod (1939)–Solow (1956) knife-edge problem. This paper shows how that knife-edge problem can be resolved via a Kaldor–Hicks technological progress function. It applies the concept to several different PK growth models. In the Harrod, super-multiplier, Cambridge, and neo-Kaleckian models the warranted rate rules the roost and natural rate forces have no impact on the equilibrium growth rate. However, in a modified neo-Kaleckian model, with labor market distribution conflict, both warranted rate and natural rate forces impact steady state growth.
Key concepts: Economics, Keynesian economics, Unemployment, Growth model, Post-Keynesian economics, Full employment, Natural rate of unemployment, Growth rate