Migratory Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea Modulated by Intraseasonal Oscillations and Climatological Circulations

Abstract This study focuses on the migratory tropical cyclones (TCs) that form in the western North Pacific (WNP) and move into the South China Sea (SCS). Their movements are found to be modulated differently by intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and climatological circulations through the TC-active months. The modulating processes of climatological circulations vary from a westward intensifying western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in July and August to a southeastward extending monsoon trough (MT) in September, and a strengthening equatorial trough (ET) in October and November. In July and August, enhanced tropical ISO convections in the SCS are accompanied by a 30–60-day anomalous anticyclone to the northeast of the SCS. The migratory TCs move along the southern peripheries of this anomalous anticyclone and the WPSH into the SCS. In September, enhanced ISO convections in the SCS coincide with a meridional 30–60-day circulation pair with an anomalous anticyclone to the north of 20°N and an anomalous cyclone to the south. TCs move in between this meridional 30–60-day circulation pair and the northern periphery of the MT toward the SCS. In October and November, enhanced ISO convections in the SCS and WNP coexist with an overlying 30–60-day anomalous cyclone and an intensified ET. The migratory TCs move along the northern sections of this 30–60-day anomalous cyclone and the ET toward the SCS. With a different track, TCs recurving northward from the tropical WNP into the region east of Taiwan are modulated by completely different variability features of the 30–60-day ISO and climatological circulations.